Politics and Elections Blog
Trends, tools and news from the Google Politics & Elections team
Digital Horserace: One month out, Gingrich leads Google searches in all four early states
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
With the Iowa Caucuses less than one month away, we thought it was time to take another look at where the candidates are in terms of search queries across the four early primary states. With Herman Cain’s pivot from Republican frontrunner to campaign after-thought, Google’s Insights for Search tools is showing former Speaker Newt Gingrich stepping into the void and accelerating his momentum - just as formalized polling data indicates.
Here’s what we found:
Perry’s gaffe wasn’t the only outcome from November 9 debate. Gingrich also started to take off then.
Gingrich has recently taken the lead in searches; beginning in early November, the former Speaker has captured the attention of the country and has taken the search lead in the four early states.
Interest in Mitt Romney is on a strong upward trajectory since December 1, indicating that American searchers are narrowing their choices to Governor Romney and Speaker Gingrich.
The spark that has driven Newt to the apparent front of the pack was - surprisingly - the November 9 debate. That night was best known for the (now) famous Rick Perry agency gaffe, but looking at how Americans searched,
it is clear
that Newt Gingrich was really the breakout star. The morning after the debate (November 10), Politico’s Maggie Haberman was
one of many journalists to point
to the building Newtmentum, writing, “If Cain’s numbers crater, Gingrich is the likeliest to benefit.” Looking at the data, it appears that the debate was pivotal in the campaign.
While sentiment and interest from voters across the country matters in this campaign, however, the near-term direction of the GOP race (and length of the primary process) is coming down to four early states: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida. Public polling is showing a mixed bag: In Iowa, Gingrich has gone out to a new lead over rival Mitt Romney. However in
New Hampshire
, Romney continues holding a strong lead, though it has diminished significantly in recent weeks to Gingrich’s benefit. The third and fourth primary/caucus states this year are
South Carolina
and
Florida
, where Gingrich holds double-digit leads.
Google users across the same four states show that their interest in the race - and specifically in Gingrich - is up significantly since early November. All four states show a lead in searches for Gingrich over rival Romney. The interest in Gingrich is unprecedented.
Gingrich out to
search lead
in Iowa recently.
In what is expected to be one of Romney’s strongest states,
New Hampshire searchers
are looking for info on Newt Gingrich in big numbers recently. Romney still holds the volume lead for 2011.
Mirroring polling data, Gingrich has
big lead in terms of recent searches
in Florida.
South Carolina
searches show one of the largest current gaps
between Romney and Gingrich.
When looking in isolation, across the country, searches for Governor Mitt Romney
are on an upward trajectory
indicating that searchers are narrowing their interest to Romney and Gingrich.
Since December 1, searches are heading straight up. Connecting voters to information about issues and platforms is core to Google's effort around elections. It is clear that searchers are digging in as the elections get closer.
Will the search trends hold up? Will Newt Gingrich extend his search lead or will Mitt Romney close the gap? We’ll be watching along with most of the country starting in early January at the Iowa Caucuses.
Posted by: Jake Parrillo, Google Politics & Elections Team
No comments :
Post a Comment
Labels
2012
4 Screens to Victory
4STV
ads
advertising
case studies
caucuses
Civic Technology
Congress
data
debates
Digital Playbook
election results
Elections
engineering
events
Fellows
Florida
France
gadgets
Google AdWords
Google Elections
Google India. Know your candidates
Google trends
Google+
Google+ Hangouts
GOP
guest posts
hacking
Hangouts On Air
horserace
How do I vote?
India
Indonesia
iowa
Livestream
media partnerships
mobile
moderator
New Hampshire
New York
nyc
open
open data
OSCON
PDF
polling
President
research
South Carolina
Spanish. google.com/elections
State of the Union
surveys
trends
trendspotters
video
Voter Information Tool
voters
Voting
YouTube
YouTube for Government
Archive
2015
Nov
Oct
Jun
May
Apr
2014
Oct
Sep
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
2013
Dec
Nov
Sep
Jun
Apr
Mar
Feb
2012
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
2011
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Mar
2010
Dec
Nov
Sep
Aug
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Jan
2009
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
Feed
Follow @googlepolitics
Calling All Google Politics Trendspotters!
Spot a political, issue or campaign search trend on the web that we should feature?
Submit Your Trends Here
No comments :
Post a Comment